Is Cooley's goose cooked?

If you're looking for a good read as you wait for an intimate pat down at the airport, Gene Maddaus at the LA Weekly has crunched the numbers in the still-undecided state Attorney General's race and found that Democrat Kamala Harris has an insurmountable lead over Republican Steve Cooley - barring some unforeseen problem with a large number of ballots.

Here's the relevant passage:

The county websites have more up-to-date figures in some cases than the Secretary of State. Using those numbers, we can say that Harris is leading by 49,535 votes. (2:50 update: 51,141 votes.) Given the geographic breakdown of the remaining uncounted ballots, we expect her to expand her lead by another 10,000 votes or so, ending up with a margin of six tenths of a percent (46.0-45.4).

In order to win the race, Cooley would have to win the remaining uncounted votes by a margin of 66-26. (Update at 2:50: Cooley would now have to win by 72-20.) The likelihood of that happening is extremely close to zero. One of his best counties was Orange County, and his margin there was only 60-31.

The Los Angeles Times today followed with a more circumspect story, the writing on the wall is still pretty clear. Of course, Cooley has the option of calling for a recount and challenging ballots, with unknown results (except that we'll have to wait many more weeks before a winner is declared). Cooley is holding a call with reporters today at 10:30 a.m. and we'll see what he says.

P.S. This Weekly's reporting here, with its 538.com edge, is what the paper is uniquely positioned to deliver when it comes to local politics. Hopefully we'll see more of it, although the political reporter the paper hired in June from the Las Vegas Sun, J. Patrick Coolican, recently left the Weekly to go back to the Sun.

Ambinder, Madhani to National Journal

The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder and Aamer Madhani of USA Today have been hired to lead the National Journal's White House coverage. Madhani is scheduled to join the National Journal next month and Ambinder will join after the November elections.

This is part of a massive talent hunt by the National Journal, which recently named Ron Brownstein as the editorial director of the National Journal Group.

Some of the other recent hires at the Journal include, "the Wall Street Journal's Yochi Dreazen, Sue Davis and Fawn Johnson; Politico's Josh Kraushaar and Coral Davenport; and Campaigns and Elections' Jeremy Jacobs.

Casting ballots in Afghanistan

Jonathan Landay of McClatchy Newspapers leads off the discussion on today's "To The Point" about the Afghan elections. He's joined by Brian Katulis of the Center for American Progress, who's in Kabul to monitor the election; Nathaniel Fick, head of the Center for a New American Security, and Nicholas Schmidle, journalist and a fellow at the New America Foundation.

Election results

The five statewide propositions, Props 1A-1E, that would have dealt with the budget went down in flames. Not a single one of them cracked 40 percent support. Proposition 1F, the mostly symbolic pay freeze for lawmakers in bad budget years, won with almost three-quarters of voters supporting it.

Carmen Trutanich won the race for Los Angeles City Attorney, beating Jack Weiss 55.7 percent to 44.3 percent. Trutanich took the early lead and never relinquished it.

Barring a Republican miracle, Board of Equalization member Judy Chu will be heading to Congress to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis. Chu, a Democrat, won the primary battle for the 32nd Congressional District with 31.9 percent of the vote. State Sen. Gil Cedillo came in second with 23.4 percent and Emanuel Pleitez proved to be a factor with 13.5 percent. Chu will go on to battle Republican Betty Tom Chu in a July 14 runoff, which Judy Chu is expected to win easily.

The race to replace Weiss in LA's 5th City Council district may be too close to call. Paul Koretz is ahead of David Vahedi 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent, but the difference represents only 335 votes.

Election results Tweets

Secretary of State Debra Bowen is going to be tweeting statewide election results at CASOSvote.

The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder is tweeting at lacountyrrcc.

Final pitch for the 32nd

The 12-way race to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis in the 32nd Congressional District comes to a close tomorrow*. Los Angeles Times reporter Jean Merl looks at the role endorsements might play for the two heavyweights in the contest - Board of Equalization member Judy Chu and state Sen. Gil Cedillo - given the expected low-voter turnout. Rebecca Kimitch at the San Gabriel Valley Tribune checks out the campaigns' ground games heading into the final weekend.

*If no one wins a majority of the vote tomorrow there will be a runoff in July between the top vote getters in each party. Given the partisan makeup of the district, the top Democrat is expected to win easily.

Fact-based voting

The May 19 election is fast approaching and the ballot propositions (1A-1F) aren't getting any easier to understand. Mark Paul, a senior scholar at the New America Foundation, has put together a video that provides some context on the budget troubles that the proposition aims to solve - or, in Paul's words, "kick ... down the road." (h/t Calbuzz)

Hey, big spender

A Los Angeles Times search of public records found that, in the last six years, state Sen. Gil Cedillo spent $125,000 out of his campaign funds for fancy hotels, expensive meals and extravagant shopping sprees. Cedillo is running for the congressional seat recently vacated by Labor Secretary Hilda Solis.

From the LAT:

Cedillo's expenses include $7,022 at Nordstrom; $3,483 at Banana Republic; $1,418 at Ann Taylor; $498 at Bloomingdale's; $450 at Crate & Barrel; and $375 at Macy's.

-snip-

All told, Cedillo has spent about $77,000 on restaurants, $29,000 on hotels and $21,000 on airline tickets over six years in the Senate. (That does not include tens of thousands of dollars spent on fundraising events at restaurants, hotels or banquet halls.)

The restaurant charges that Cedillo reported as meetings, office or travel expenses include $424 at Ristorante Buca Mario in Florence; $298 at Ristorante San Francesco in Assisi, Italy; $501 at Emporio da Gula in Foz do Iguacu, Brazil; and in Los Angeles, $964 at Cicada; $559 at La Serenata de Garibaldi; $229 at Blair's; and $1,373 at the Palm.

Cedillo told the Times that all of the items he bought were gifts for others and called his many overseas excursions "relevant to the extent that they enrich my capacity as a legislator." Good government advocated Bob Stern said "it sounds like he is using campaign funds to supplement his lifestyle."

Poll watch

A few good places to get election results:

Pollster.com

New York Times' customizable electoral map

CNN.com let's you pick races to watch

Newsweek election map

Washington Post's election page

Mark Halperin's The Page

Politico's election map

Get info on California's elections here, get statewide results here, and local results here

And don't forget the KCRW elections page here