Mar 3, 2008

In case you care (I'm not sure I do) *Updated

I predict Hillary Clinton wins Ohio by 5-8 points, loses Texas by a hair and stays in the race with the argument that Pennsylvania looks a lot like Ohio, Florida could hold a do-over and enough superdelegates dig her style to put Barack Obama's inevitability in doubt.

She's just getting warmed up after all.

Obama needed a sharp stake and a hefty hammer to finish this one off. I don't think he brung it. In the last several days, Clinton has owned the news cycles, with her red phone ad, her campaign's leak of Obama in foreign garb, her re-ignition of a story that Obama's adviser told the Canadians he wasn't really serious about renegotiating Nafta, and the Tony Rezko trial starting today.

All of this comes on top of her successfully convincing the media that it had indeed developed a crush on Obama, which, as in real life, caused them to act out in strange ways to prove they don't really like him like that. *(Here's some proof of this phenomenon.)

Obama needs a stronger argument coming out of tomorrow's results than "she needed to win by a bigger margin." He appears to have New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on his side to ask Hillary to step aside, but he'll need stronger surrogates than that. After all, she has Bill Clinton mounting her defense and this is where he will be most effective, working the party insiders.

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